Meta’s October 12 release of Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, its first claimed frontier models strong in agentic workflows, coding, and memory tasks, has sharpened competition for the #2 AI lab spot on style-controlled leaderboards by end-November. Anthropic holds a slim market edge at 51.5% amid recent Claude Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 updates that improved speed and cost-efficiency on benchmarks, while Google’s Gemini variants and Meta’s rapid iteration keep their implied probabilities clustered near 50% or lower. Traders weigh demonstrated capabilities in controlled generation against historical release timelines and potential last-minute model drops, noting that small benchmark shifts or new agent features could still reorder the closely matched field before resolution.