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Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2027?

34% chance

US recession by end of 2026?

8% chance

Economy

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

chance

Key Elections

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

87%
Flávio Bolsonaro
13%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

chance

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2027?

34% chance

US recession by end of 2026?

8% chance

Economy

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%

chance

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

chance

Key Elections

Oct

Brazil

Presidential

87%
Flávio Bolsonaro
13%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

chance

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

chance