Recent Kremlin statements and a substantive October phone call between Trump and Putin have elevated prospects for an in-person encounter on the sidelines of the November APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, where Xi Jinping is also expected. Russian officials have described trilateral discussions as previously considered, with both leaders indicating interest in attending the forum as a venue for bilateral talks amid ongoing Ukraine diplomacy and energy arrangements. This timeline and location alignment explain trader consensus around China as the leading outcome. Limited signals for alternative sites, combined with uncertainty over whether a firm bilateral commitment will materialize before year-end, underpin the secondary probability assigned to no meeting by December 31.