**Traders see low odds of the Trump administration being held in contempt by October 31 because the underlying press-credential dispute remains in active litigation with no reported violations of current court orders.** On September 18, President Trump revoked hard passes for journalists from CNN, MS NOW, and Politico, citing unfavorable coverage. The outlets sued, and U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly (a Trump appointee) first issued a temporary restraining order on September 24 restoring access. On October 13–14, Kelly converted that into a preliminary injunction, ruling the revocations likely violated due process and amounted to First Amendment retaliation and viewpoint discrimination; he rejected the administration’s later national-security rationale and ordered officials to maintain the status quo while the case proceeds. No contempt motions, defiance of the injunction, or sanctions proceedings have been reported in the days since the ruling. With only about two weeks until the October 31 deadline, the compressed timeline, ongoing appeals process, and absence of any compliance issues make a contempt finding before the cutoff highly improbable under standard judicial timelines. The market reflects trader consensus that the administration is currently operating within the bounds of the preliminary relief.