Zhang Youxia’s expulsion from the Communist Party and PLA in September 2026, following his January investigation for corruption, factionalism, and disloyalty, has consolidated trader expectations that formal prison sentencing will not occur before 2027. After removal from the Central Military Commission in August and Politburo approval of his expulsion, authorities referred the case to military prosecutors, yet no trial date or verdict has been announced. In China’s military justice system, high-level disciplinary cases typically progress through extended internal reviews before any criminal sentencing, and the short window remaining in 2026 makes completion unlikely. Recent official statements emphasize political and economic violations without indicating accelerated judicial timelines, reinforcing the 88.5% implied probability against a prison sentence before year-end.