Zhang Youxia, former vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under investigation in January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, including corruption and political disloyalty. He was removed from the CMC in August and formally expelled from the Communist Party and military in September 2026, with his case transferred to military prosecutors for review and prosecution. Similar high-profile military corruption cases have led to sentences, yet the full legal process—from expulsion to formal sentencing—typically spans many months. With only weeks remaining before 2027 and no public indication of an expedited trial or verdict, traders assign an 88% implied probability that sentencing will not occur in time, reflecting the procedural timeline and lack of recent developments signaling rapid resolution.