Morena holds the lead in trader consensus for the Zacatecas state congress outcome at 56 percent amid a fragmented field ahead of the June 2027 election. The party currently controls 12 of 30 seats following the 2024 vote and benefits from its position as the largest single force in recent party-preference surveys, though gubernatorial polling shows a tighter contest with Movimiento Ciudadano and a potential PAN-PRI alliance ahead of Verónica Díaz Robles. Recent defections of local Morena and PVEM figures to the PAN, combined with 56 percent of respondents favoring a change of party in state government, underscore opposition momentum and alliance-building that could influence seat distribution under the mixed-member system. Scheduled candidate definitions and coalition negotiations remain key variables that could shift probabilities before voting begins.