Recent court rulings have reinforced expectations that former President Yoon Suk-yeol will remain in custody well into 2027. A Seoul court imposed a five-year prison term in mid-October 2026 on charges including obstruction of an arrest warrant and abuse of presidential authority tied to the December 2024 martial law declaration. Yoon's legal team has signaled an appeal, while a separate insurrection trial—where prosecutors have sought life imprisonment or the death penalty—continues with a verdict anticipated in early 2027. An ongoing election-law appeal carries only a suspended sentence. These active proceedings, combined with procedural requirements for appeals and the absence of any scheduled release mechanism, underpin the strong trader consensus against early release. Outcomes could shift through successful appeals resulting in acquittal, a presidential pardon, or significant health-related interventions, though none appear imminent.