Recent semiconductor export surges have generated record current-account surpluses and dollar supply from exporters, exerting downward pressure on USD/KRW toward the mid-1,330s as of mid-October 2026. Foreign equity outflows and KOSPI volatility have periodically reversed gains, lifting the pair above 1,340 amid custody dollar demand. The Bank of Korea’s tightening bias and the Fed’s policy path, including potential December moves, influence interest-rate differentials and capital flows. Oil price spikes from geopolitical risks add upward bias, while importer hedging and WGBI inflows could support further won appreciation. Traders monitor October FOMC and BOK decisions for shifts in the 1,320–1,400 range.