Strong South Korean semiconductor exports have generated record dollar inflows, with chip shipments exceeding $60 billion in September alone, prompting sustained exporter dollar sales that have reinforced KRW strength and capped USD/KRW upside near recent lows around 1,333–1,340. The pair has declined roughly 7% year-to-date from January levels near 1,444, trading in a 1,330–1,400 band amid elevated U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical oil-price risks. Recent dovish Federal Reserve commentary has tempered December rate-hike odds, while the Bank of Korea is expected to hold policy steady; upcoming September U.S. CPI data and year-end dividend flows represent near-term swing factors for the market-implied path through year-end 2026.