Recent semiconductor export surges exceeding $60 billion in September have fueled exporter dollar sales, anchoring USD/KRW near 1,338 as of October 14 and supporting KRW resilience despite foreign equity outflows. Bank of Korea policy tightening to 3.00% with a median dot-plot path to 3.25% has narrowed the rate differential versus the Fed funds target at 4.00%, while dovish New York Fed comments on limited further hikes this year and none next have eased dollar pressure. Elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions and upcoming U.S. September CPI data add two-way risks, with year-end forecasts centering on a 1,320–1,400 consolidation band amid strong external surpluses.