Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25 stands as the dominant near-term catalyst for USD/BRL, with markets pricing in potential real appreciation on expectations of fiscal consolidation and deregulation under a likely Flavio Bolsonaro victory. The wide Selic-Fed funds differential near 1,000 basis points continues to support carry inflows, though easing by Copom toward 13.50% by year-end could narrow the gap. Recent Focus survey data show 2026 IPCA inflation revised higher to 5.01% while GDP growth forecasts slipped to 1.85%, keeping the central bank cautious. Consensus end-2026 USD/BRL projections cluster around 5.20, with volatility likely to hinge on post-election fiscal signals, commodity terms of trade, and any shifts in Fed policy or global risk appetite.