Traders see a 96.2% probability that the United States will not annex any territory in 2026, driven by the lack of active diplomatic initiatives, military campaigns, or official proposals targeting sovereign land acquisition. U.S. foreign policy priorities center on alliances, trade negotiations, and existing security commitments rather than territorial expansion, consistent with decades of precedent. Constitutional requirements for congressional approval, international norms against unilateral annexation, and domestic focus on legislation and elections further limit realistic pathways. Late-year developments such as sudden escalations in border disputes, strategic island claims, or major shifts in executive priorities could still alter outcomes, though none are currently indicated.