Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on the Moscow region have intensified in October 2026, with major barrages reported on October 6 (over 650 drones, two fatalities, fuel depot damage) and October 10 (over 400 drones disrupting airports). The most recent incident on October 13 involved more than 400 drones directed toward the capital, most intercepted at distance, with limited damage outside Moscow proper. These operations reflect Kyiv's sustained campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and rear-area targets amid reciprocal long-range exchanges. Trader probabilities for specific October dates fluctuate with each confirmed wave, reflecting uncertainty over exact timing, target selection within the federal city, and Russian air defense effectiveness. Upcoming winter infrastructure pressures and any shifts in Ukrainian munitions supply could further influence strike patterns.