Ukrainian forces lost control of Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to Russian troops in November 2025 amid intense fighting along the Huliaipole axis. Since then, Ukrainian operations have focused elsewhere, most notably the Third Army Corps’ Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive north of Lyman in Donetsk, which produced incremental gains of several villages and tens of square kilometers but no parallel push in southern sectors. Russian forces continue to press advances around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka while maintaining defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia, with no verified Ukrainian attempts to contest Uspenivka territory in the past year. Broader developments, including U.S.-mediated diplomatic contacts and sustained high-intensity combat across Donbas, have not shifted resources toward a southern recapture effort. Traders therefore price near-term re-entry as unlikely absent a major realignment of Ukrainian priorities or a negotiated territorial adjustment.