Turkey’s ruling People’s Alliance holds 326 seats in the 600-seat parliament and lacks the 360 votes needed to call early elections under the constitution. Senior officials, including presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, have repeatedly signaled that any parliamentary renewal vote would target April 2028 to allow President Erdoğan another candidacy while preserving stability. Opposition calls for an immediate vote have been rejected amid economic pressures and legal proceedings against key challengers. With the next regular presidential and parliamentary contests set for May 2028 and no procedural trigger or coalition consensus for action before year-end, traders assign a 95% probability against scheduling early elections in 2026.