Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting historical precedent where only one U.S. president has resigned and no verified developments indicate Trump intends to step down during his term. Primary drivers include the absence of acute health crises, major scandals, or bipartisan pressure sufficient to force an early exit, alongside Trump's consistent public positioning and institutional stability in the executive branch. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical incapacity requiring transfer of power under the 25th Amendment, conviction in ongoing legal proceedings, or an unforeseen political rupture prompting voluntary departure before the resolution date.