The constitutional amendment process creates the dominant barrier, as repealing the 22nd Amendment would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states. Trader consensus at 97 percent against repeal in 2026 reflects the absence of any legislative momentum or state-level movement toward such a change, consistent with the historical rarity of successful term-limit reversals. Even unified Republican control of Congress would face steep hurdles in the states and potential legal challenges over eligibility timing. Late-session shifts, unexpected court rulings on related executive powers, or coordinated state resolutions remain the narrow pathways that could alter probabilities before year-end.