US adherence to the longstanding “One Somalia” policy, combined with the absence of any formal recognition announcement, underpins traders’ 95%+ consensus against recognition before 2027. President Trump’s October 12 remarks distinguishing Somaliland as a “totally different country” generated diplomatic engagement and Somaliland outreach but produced no policy shift, consistent with prior statements that the administration was merely “looking into” the issue. The United States continues to affirm Somalia’s territorial integrity, a stance reinforced in State Department reporting and aligned with African Union concerns over precedent for other separatist movements. With only weeks remaining before the 2027 deadline, the short timeline further reduces the scope for a sudden reversal. A late executive action remains possible if tied to broader Horn of Africa security or domestic political calculations, though no such move has materialized.