**No at 89% reflects the absence of enacted rate reductions despite ongoing discussion.** The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended many TCJA individual and business provisions but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at their prior levels while expanding targeted relief such as Opportunity Zones and qualified small-business stock exclusions. In 2026, White House officials including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett publicly floated indexing gains to inflation or raising the primary-home exclusion, yet no legislation advancing those or broader rate cuts has cleared Congress. Proposed bills to double the home-sale exclusion or eliminate gains on primary residences remain in committee with limited time remaining before the 2027 threshold and competing priorities around TCJA extensions and fiscal measures. Traders therefore assign high probability to no rate cut occurring in the narrow remaining window.