**Trader consensus heavily favors “No” on a long-term capital gains tax rate cut before 2027, reflecting the absence of enacted legislation despite earlier discussion.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, extended TCJA individual provisions and added targeted relief such as deductions for tips and overtime but left the 0/15/20% long-term capital gains structure unchanged. Exploratory proposals in mid-2026—indexing gains for inflation or expanding the primary-residence exclusion—were floated by administration officials ahead of the midterms yet produced no formal bill or floor action. With limited legislative days remaining in 2026, competing fiscal priorities, and the need for congressional passage or reconciliation, a rate reduction appears unlikely to clear both chambers and reach the president before the year-end deadline. Markets price the low probability of late-session movement or unilateral administrative change as the dominant factor behind the current odds.