Recent record sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, already exceeding +3°C in weekly observations and approaching or surpassing +2.5°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index during recent months, drive the near-certain market-implied odds for a super El Niño this winter. NOAA and multi-model ensembles project a peak near +3.5–3.7°C through December–February, exceeding prior events since 1950 with probabilities above 83% for historic strength and near-100% persistence into early 2027. This reflects coupled ocean-atmosphere strengthening confirmed by official monitoring. Residual uncertainty stems from model spread in peak intensity and exact timing of any late weakening, though even lower-end forecasts remain well above very strong thresholds.