US military pressure on Venezuela centers on counter-narcotics operations under labels such as Operation Southern Spear, including strikes on suspected drug vessels and a major naval buildup featuring the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group arriving in the region. This follows the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces in a targeted raid, after which Delcy Rodríguez assumed an interim role amid an oil-sector agreement granting the US significant stakes. Current diplomacy includes transition talks between the interim government and opposition factions, calls for elections, and designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization. These steps, alongside sanctions relief and debt restructuring efforts, shape trader assessments of whether limited strikes and coercive diplomacy will escalate to a broader invasion within any given timeframe. Scheduled talks and naval movements remain key near-term variables.