US military actions in Venezuela center on the January 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve raid that captured Nicolás Maduro through targeted strikes and special operations rather than territorial occupation. Subsequent naval deployments in the Caribbean and strikes on suspected drug vessels have not escalated to ground forces establishing control, consistent with trader consensus pricing a low probability of full invasion by late 2026. International criticism at the UN Security Council, congressional skepticism over authorization, and statements emphasizing temporary stabilization over prolonged intervention reinforce this positioning. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any shifts in Venezuelan interim leadership or oil policy could still alter risk assessments within the resolution window.