The U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 special forces raid has not triggered market resolution on invasion contracts, as resolution sources classified it as a targeted law-enforcement operation rather than an offensive to establish territorial control. Trader consensus currently assigns low probability to a full invasion by year-end because U.S. efforts have shifted toward diplomatic negotiations with interim authorities, sanctions relief to enable oil exports, and stabilization measures. Ongoing naval presence and counter-narcotics strikes in the Caribbean support pressure tactics but align with limited-scope operations rather than ground-force occupation. Key upcoming catalysts include further transition talks and potential elections, which traders view as alternatives to escalation.