Traders assign a 98.5% probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, reflecting the complete absence of military mobilization, congressional authorization, or official statements signaling intent. Bilateral ties continue through trade frameworks, joint border security operations, and cooperation on narcotics enforcement, while U.S. defense priorities focus elsewhere without escalation signals. Diplomatic channels remain active and no legislative or executive actions have moved toward conflict. Even with this consensus, late developments such as a major cross-border incident or abrupt policy reversal could theoretically shift conditions before year-end, though current evidence shows no such trajectory.