Robust U.S.-Colombia security cooperation and diplomatic alignment under President Abelardo de la Espriella drive the 96.9% "No" consensus on a 2026 invasion. Recent developments include September 2026 agreements on critical minerals and civil nuclear cooperation, U.S. disaster assistance after Colombia's earthquake, expanded joint counter-narcotics operations with drones and task forces, and Washington's public endorsement of deepened partnership against armed groups. Traders weigh longstanding bilateral ties, Colombia's shift from prior peace talks to military pressure on cartels, and shared regional priorities like the Shield of the Americas coalition. An invasion remains improbable absent a sudden rupture in relations or major escalation; even then, joint operations and institutional frameworks would likely channel responses through cooperation rather than direct conflict.