The U.S. special forces raid capturing Nicolás Maduro in Caracas in early January 2026 represented the primary kinetic action against a Latin American government this year, executed as a targeted operation rather than a sustained invasion or occupation. Subsequent policy has emphasized maritime strikes on suspected drug vessels, sanctions, oil blockades, and coalition-building with regional partners under frameworks like the Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition. Senior U.S. officials, including at SOUTHCOM, have stated no active preparations exist for ground invasions of Cuba or other nations, while President Trump has signaled preference for diplomatic deals amid ongoing economic pressure. Trader consensus at 95.5% for “No” aligns with this pattern of limited, non-occupational measures. Remaining 2026 risks include potential escalation if cartel designations trigger broader strikes or if Cuba talks collapse, though current military planning and public statements indicate containment within existing authorities.