Ongoing diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding aimed at a ceasefire and final nuclear agreement, have not produced a completed deal eligible for UN Security Council endorsement. Recent IAEA Board action in September 2026 referring Iran’s safeguards compliance issues to the Council, combined with Russia and China vetoing U.S. proposals to extend sanctions-monitoring mechanisms, underscore persistent P5 divisions. U.S. demands for verifiable limits on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief remain unmet amid stalled bilateral discussions and threats of resumed military pressure. These factors have led traders to assign an 89.5% implied probability that no endorsing resolution will pass by December 31.