**Trader sentiment on the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission reflects deep skepticism after years of slippage.** Announced in 2021 as the first fully Dogecoin-funded SpaceX payload, the 12U satellite has missed multiple targeted windows, with no confirmed slot on recent Falcon 9 manifests or firm rideshare pairing as of mid-October 2026. Reports of a September 14 liftoff proved premature or unverified, leaving the project without a locked date despite ongoing Q4 2026 references on mission materials. This history of delays and the absence of official SpaceX or Geometric Energy updates drive the market’s heavy weighting toward 2027 resolution dates, with 2026 odds near rock bottom. Key catalysts ahead include any manifest additions, precursor mission integrations like IM-3, or public statements confirming launch readiness.