Tesla’s production of the Cybercab began in February 2026 at Gigafactory Texas, with hundreds of units now operating unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin and other Texas and Florida cities. However, these vehicles remain part of Tesla’s internal fleet rather than retail sales, and no public MSRP, configurator, or qualifying consumer transactions have been confirmed. Ongoing NHTSA review of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards compliance, including brake-by-wire and absence of manual controls, plus the lack of finalized consumer delivery timelines, keep the implied probability of a sub-$30,000 retail sale by year-end at just 18.5%. Key near-term catalysts include Tesla’s October 30 response to the agency’s special order and any potential shift from fleet to individual buyer availability.