**Swiss parliamentary progress on post-Credit Suisse too-big-to-fail reforms supports the 78.5% implied probability that the UBS capital requirements bill will pass by June 30, 2027.** The Federal Council’s original proposal for full CET1 backing of foreign subsidiaries advanced through the upper house (Ständerat) on September 23, 2026, where lawmakers approved a 90% CET1 variant by 29-16, rejecting a more lenient 50/50 CET1/AT1 compromise. The measure now moves to the lower house (Nationalrat), with committee review expected in October-November and floor consideration in the winter session. Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and the SNB have backed tighter rules to strengthen parent-bank resilience, while UBS has criticized the added capital burden. The extended timeline to mid-2027 accommodates bicameral reconciliation and any referendum, aligning with the observed trader consensus on eventual enactment.