Sneako’s status as a native-born U.S. citizen born in New York drives the 96.4% market-implied probability against deportation in 2026. Multiple reports confirm his parents are Haitian and Filipino, establishing birthright citizenship that U.S. law protects outside narrow denaturalization cases for fraud, none of which apply here. Online feuds with Elon Musk, Alex Jones, and others, plus recent performative “Deport Sneako” protests by rival creators, have generated headlines but remain rhetorical with no corresponding legal action or immigration proceedings. Traders recognize these cultural flashpoints lack the power to override constitutional barriers. The only realistic upset scenarios would require unprecedented legislative changes or undisclosed citizenship issues, both viewed as remote given the current political and legal landscape.