Russia has conducted repeated large-scale missile and drone strikes on Kyiv in recent days, including ballistic missile impacts on October 12–13 that damaged transport, warehouse, and energy facilities while causing civilian casualties. These attacks form part of a broader campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics, framed by Moscow as retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites. U.S. President Trump’s October 11 announcement of an “energy ceasefire” has not halted the strikes, with neither side confirming a formal agreement. Trader assessments of near-term targeting probabilities reflect this sustained operational tempo, Kyiv’s role in Ukrainian defense production and command, and the absence of verified de-escalation steps, while monitoring any shifts in Russian launch patterns or diplomatic signals within the resolution window.