Russia remains heavily committed to its ongoing military operations in Ukraine, with forces engaged in attrition warfare, long-range strikes on energy and logistics targets, and incremental advances that constrain available manpower and resources for a new conventional campaign elsewhere. Western intelligence assessments, including from Denmark and Germany in September and October 2026, describe a low but growing risk of limited incursions, sabotage, or hybrid actions against neighboring NATO states to test alliance resolve, while judging a full-scale invasion highly unlikely in the near term due to preparation timelines of at least six months and Russian capacity shortfalls. President Putin has repeatedly denied offensive intentions toward NATO members through 2050 while issuing defensive warnings regarding Kaliningrad and responding to perceived threats. Intelligence from Estonia and Sweden reports no indications of imminent conventional attacks, though escalation risks could rise if Moscow perceives weakened collective defense responses.