Western intelligence assessments from September and October 2026 highlight a low but growing risk that Russia could conduct limited military actions or hybrid operations against neighboring NATO states, particularly in the Baltics, even while the conflict in Ukraine continues. Estonian forces have repositioned troops nearer the border, Danish and Czech services have flagged possible provocations or small-scale incursions within months, and German officials have noted intensified Russian sabotage, cyberattacks, and drone activity aimed at testing alliance cohesion. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated at forums such as Valdai that Moscow has no plans to attack any country and would respond with all available means only if directly attacked, including on Kaliningrad. Russia’s military remains heavily committed in Ukraine, with no visible large-scale preparations for broader conventional operations elsewhere. Upcoming NATO exercises and winter energy infrastructure strikes in Ukraine could influence escalation dynamics through early 2027.