Russian forces continue localized probing and infiltration attempts around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with reports of activity on the southern outskirts and nearby settlements such as Novoselivka, yet ISW assessments indicate no confirmed advances into the town or its train station. Ukrainian units have repelled multiple assault groups, destroyed logistics bridges near Polohy, and conducted their own infiltrations while stabilizing adjacent sectors like Huliaipole. Broader Ukrainian counteroffensives under Operation Vivaldi in Donbas have disrupted Russian momentum elsewhere, constraining resources on the southern axis amid ongoing glide bomb strikes and drone activity. These dynamics underpin trader consensus reflected in low near-term probabilities, as sustained Ukrainian defensive positions and supply interdiction continue to limit rapid territorial gains despite persistent Russian pressure.