Russian forces continue localized offensive operations and infiltration attempts around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with recent reports of pressure on southern and southeastern sectors plus small gains in nearby villages such as Novoselivka. Ukrainian defenses have contained these efforts, destroying sabotage groups and preventing significant advances toward the town center or its train station, while Russian units failed to meet September objectives in the Orikhiv and Huliaipole directions despite massing assault groups and substantial troop concentrations. Ukrainian assessments indicate Moscow lacks the resources for a decisive push on Zaporizhzhia city itself. Traders price a low probability of capture by year-end, reflecting the slow pace of Russian gains, Ukrainian stabilization measures, and ongoing artillery, drone, and glide-bomb activity without breakthrough. Scheduled developments through late 2026 include continued Russian probing and any Ukrainian counter-moves that could further constrain momentum.