Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive in the Lyman direction has reclaimed over 270 square kilometers and multiple settlements north of Sloviansk since late summer 2026, disrupting Russian attempts to outflank the fortress belt cities including Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration missions toward Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka northwest of Kostyantynivka but lack confirmed control of the settlement or its railroad station, with Ukrainian units capturing infiltrators, clearing positions, and using drones to interdict logistics. Independent assessments note unverified Russian claims alongside slowed overall Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian counteractions that constrain incremental gains. Trader consensus on low near-term capture probabilities reflects these battlefield dynamics and the broader defensive resilience around the Druzhkivka sector.