The continuity of Iran's theocratic system under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, selected in March 2026 after his father's death in US-Israeli strikes, underpins trader consensus that Reza Pahlavi will not exercise de facto leadership by year-end. Pahlavi remains an exiled opposition figure without military command, ministerial control, or broad institutional backing inside the country, despite ongoing protests, calls for a referendum on governance, and his public transition proposals. Recent reporting highlights divisions within the opposition, limited organizational reach on the ground, and skepticism from analysts regarding any rapid shift to secular democratic rule under his direction. While external military developments or widespread elite defections could theoretically alter trajectories before December 31, the current political structure and Pahlavi's position outside formal power channels sustain the elevated probability assigned to no change.