Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, continues to state publicly that he is prepared to return at the first opportunity to oversee a democratic transition, including free elections and a referendum on governance. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, followed by U.S. strikes and a subsequent ceasefire, prompted renewed protests and opposition messaging, yet Iran’s core institutions and security apparatus have shown resilience without systemic collapse. Pahlavi has issued calls for strikes, demonstrations, and defections among security forces while seeking international support, but reports indicate no verified internal consensus, military backing, or scheduled entry. Traders assess low near-term probabilities due to these structural and political barriers, with any shift likely requiring clearer evidence of regime weakening or coordinated opposition advances before year-end deadlines.