Republicans currently hold the House majority following the 2024 elections, with control extending through the 2026 midterms absent a shift in seat count. Trader consensus at 98.7% against losing that majority before November reflects the brief remaining window and structural barriers to change, as seats flip only via special elections, resignations, deaths, or court-ordered vacancies. No wave of such events has materialized in recent weeks to threaten the balance, consistent with historical patterns where single-party control rarely erodes in the final stretch before voters decide the next Congress. While late developments like unexpected vacancies could theoretically narrow margins, the compressed timeline and low probability of multiple simultaneous triggers sustain the strong implied probability that the majority holds until the midterms.