**Recent Malian government advances, backed by Russian Africa Corps air and ground support, have shifted momentum against rebel groups in northern Mali and underpin trader expectations that rebels will not seize Gao by December 31.** In early October 2026, Malian forces re-entered Kidal—the key Tuareg separatist stronghold—after the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) announced a strategic withdrawal under sustained aerial pressure from drones and munitions, avoiding direct combat. This followed the FLA and JNIM’s April 2026 coordinated offensive that captured Kidal and contested parts of the Gao region, though government forces retained control of the Gao airport and other positions. The October operation consolidated Malian presence along key northern routes, including links to Gao, while highlighting the junta’s improved ability to project force with external backing. Ongoing JNIM activity, including the September Dioura camp attack and sporadic ambushes, continues to strain resources across central and northern areas. However, rebels have shown a pattern of tactical retreats when facing concentrated air-ground operations rather than committing to hold or expand urban control in Gao. With roughly two and a half months remaining and government forces demonstrating recent consolidation in the Gao-Kidal corridor, the prevailing trader consensus reflects limited near-term prospects for a decisive rebel capture of the city.