Mayor Zohran Mamdani has advocated for a 2-percentage-point increase in New York City personal income taxes on residents earning above $1 million annually to address budget shortfalls, but the measure requires approval from the state legislature in Albany rather than city action alone. Governor Kathy Hochul and key legislative leaders have shown limited support for this specific income tax hike, favoring other revenue tools such as the pied-à-terre surcharge already advancing through implementation. With only weeks remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline and no floor votes or committee advances reported in recent months, traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to failure. Structural barriers include the need for bipartisan or supermajority backing in a divided Albany environment, competing fiscal priorities, and the short legislative calendar. Late-session budget negotiations or an unexpected shift in gubernatorial priorities represent the narrowest paths that could still alter the outcome.