**New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has repeatedly proposed a 2-percentage-point city income tax surcharge on residents earning over $1 million to close multi-billion-dollar budget gaps, but the measure requires explicit authorization from the state legislature and governor.** Governor Kathy Hochul has opposed the hike, and Albany has instead advanced or enacted alternative revenue measures such as a pied-à-terre tax on high-value second homes. With only weeks remaining in 2026 and entrenched institutional barriers—including the city’s limited home-rule authority over personal income taxes and divided Democratic priorities—traders assign just a 2.6% chance of passage by year-end. Recent Wall Street revenue windfalls have also eased immediate fiscal pressure. The slim remaining scenarios that could shift odds include a late-session compromise during budget negotiations, an unexpected gubernatorial reversal, or a court ruling altering procedural requirements before December 31.