Iran’s legal system, rooted in Islamic law and the Islamic Penal Code, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties ranging from flogging to execution and provides no recognition of same-sex partnerships or marriage. This framework, unchanged since the 1979 revolution and reinforced by official statements and enforcement actions through 2026, drives the near-certain trader consensus against legalization. International calls for reform during UN reviews have produced no domestic policy shifts, while limited gender reassignment permissions remain distinct from same-sex rights. Realistic scenarios that could alter odds include a fundamental change in government structure or binding external agreements tied to sanctions relief, though both remain distant given current institutional priorities.