IBM reports Q3 2026 results after the close on October 21, with market attention centered on the software segment that generates roughly 45% of total revenue. Analysts project modest reported growth of 4.5-6% for the quarter, following Q2’s 5% headline increase that masked flat organic performance due to delayed large deals. IBM lowered its full-year software growth target to 6-8% and total revenue outlook to 4-5%, citing customer spending shifts toward AI infrastructure. Traders will scrutinize any rebound in transaction processing, Red Hat acceleration, annual recurring revenue trends near $24.6 billion, and conversion of slipped contracts. Recent AI partnerships may provide incremental support, though 2026 is viewed as transitional ahead of potential 2027 improvement. Polymarket odds aggregate real-capital trader views on whether software revenue exceeds the implied threshold.