Greenland’s governing coalition, led by the Demokraatit party since the 2025 election, has explicitly deferred any independence referendum beyond the near term, citing economic dependence on Denmark’s annual block grant and the need for preparatory legal work. A commission examining the steps to sovereignty is scheduled to report only in early 2027, with no ballot or legislative timeline set for 2026. The September 2026 trilateral security agreement with the United States and Denmark further reinforces this outlook by reaffirming Danish sovereignty while locking any future independent Greenland into NATO membership and existing defense arrangements. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a 97.9 percent implied probability. A sudden government collapse, sharp deterioration in Danish fiscal support, or an unforeseen external shock could still reopen the question before year-end.