**Recent Art Basel and UBS data showing 2025 global art sales at $59.6 billion—up just 4% after two years of declines—anchors trader skepticism that the market will reach $65 billion in 2026.** The recovery remains uneven and K-shaped, with public auction sales rising 9% on strength above $10 million while dealer sales grew only 2% amid rising costs and selective demand. First-half 2026 auction totals from the major houses surged 70% year-over-year on trophy results, yet galleries continue restructuring and the middle market lags. Cautious dealer optimism (43% expecting gains) and persistent geopolitical and tariff pressures suggest momentum may not accelerate enough to close the gap in the remaining months.