**Elevated U.S. retail gasoline prices, driven by geopolitical supply risks and tight inventories, continue to shape trader views on whether any state average will fall below $3.75.** As of October 13, 2026, AAA data show the national regular average near $4.34–$4.36 per gallon, with the lowest state figures at approximately $3.81 in Georgia and $3.82 in Texas—well above the threshold. Higher crude benchmarks, refinery maintenance in the Midwest, and lingering effects from Middle East disruptions have kept crack spreads wide and prevented meaningful declines despite recent weekly dips. Seasonal demand moderation and any further inventory builds could pressure prices lower, but analysts expect limited relief ahead of the November 3 midterms, with related prediction markets assigning high odds to sustained levels above $4 nationally.