Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former Lega MEP Roberto Vannacci after his split from Matteo Salvini’s party, has drawn consistent polling leads over Lega ahead of Italy’s next general election, expected in late 2027. Recent surveys from SWG, Noto, and others place Futuro Nazionale at 7–8% nationally while Lega hovers at 5–6%, reflecting voter shifts from the Carroccio and some Fratelli d’Italia support toward the newer nationalist formation. Defections of multiple Lega deputies to Futuro Nazionale, combined with its stronger showings in September 2026 Calabrian by-elections, have reinforced this positioning. Traders appear to view these sustained trends and structural erosion of Lega’s base as durable factors favoring Futuro Nazionale outpolling its former ally.